The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part VIII: Colorado

Last night, in the Twin Cities region of Minnesota, Barack Obama triumphed over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes. With Obama having secured the needed delegate votes to become the standard bearer of the Democrats for the 2008 election cycle, he decided to kickoff his general election campaign against John McCain in, of all places, the Xcel Energy Center in Minnesota's capital city of St. Paul, home of this year's Republican National Convention, where the GOP will set its own platform (and trust me, it will not be as southern fried as in the past) for this cycle. As for the Democrats, their convention is set to take place in a state that has been anointed as their key to victory in the West…

COLORADO

Known as the Centennial State (for it was admitted to the Union in 1876), with hundreds of mountain peaks in the five-figure range (courtesy of the Rocky Mountains) and its location at the northeast quadrant of Four Corners, Colorado is a spectacular sight all to its own. But landscaping is far from the only feature of this state. Colorado is also one of the richest states in the nation, with a diverse economy dominated by beer production, mining, agriculture, finance, the Denver Mint, technology, and government services ranging from the NOAA to a Supermax prison. Owing to Colorado's strong economic growth, the state is dominated by transplants who came to Colorado in search of a new frontier in their lives.

Colorado's political scene is diverse. The heart of the state's Republican establishment lies in Colorado Springs, home to the Air Force Academy and Focus on the Family, while Democrats perform strongest in Denver and also in the college towns of Boulder and Fort Collins. The rest of the state, from the Denver suburbs to the Western Slope and a number of its ski resorts, can get swingy depending on who the candidates are, or how the parties are viewed in particular. In short, Colorado tends to take a libertarian approach to its politics, a common trait among western states.

Right now, the trend favors the Democrats, who in 2006 gained the Governor's Mansion, a congressional seat, and several state legislative seats. That, along with the 2008 Democratic National Convention being held in Denver and a competitive battle for the now-open U.S. Senate seat of Wayne Allard, makes for a difficult situation for the Republicans. The question is, will it show in the House?

NOTE: The primary is on August 12, 2008. Predictions could change based on various circumstances.

District 1 (S-Factor 18.3 DEM): This is the most heavily Democratic district in the state, encompassing the capital city of Denver and a few surrounding areas (i.e. Englewood, Glendale). Diana DeGette has been the district's standard-bearer since her first victory in 1996 when she succeeded 12-term incumbent and one-time presidential candidate Pat Schroeder. The Republican candidate is George Lilly, a salesman and Army Veteran who is among many Ron Paul Republicans running this year including many in urban areas such as this one. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): Mark Udall is leaving the House to run as his party's U.S. Senate nominee in the wake of Wayne Allard's retirement (In fact, Udall had been planning it well before Allard called it a career). This district is expected to remain Democratic due to its liberal base in Boulder, home of the University of Colorado, though it also takes in many of Colorado's natural features from ski slopes to national forests to wilderness preserves, all in the north central part of the state which can get red at times, as well as some suburbs of Denver including Westminster and Thornton. The Democrats have turned this contest into a multi-million dollar blockbuster primary with former State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Former State Board of Education Chair Jared Polis, and State Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth staged in a heated battle for their party's nomination. Attorney and teacher Larry Johnson is also running on the Dem ticket. Electronical engineer Scott Starin is the lone Republican candidate thus far. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 5.3 GOP): John Salazar represents a heavily rural district on the western and southern edges of the state, including Grand Junction and Pueblo. While it leans Republican, Salazar is not expected to face an especially strong challenge. The Republican candidate is Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf, who has yet to soar. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 4 (S-Factor 8.3 GOP): Marilyn Musgrave has never had an especially easy victory in this Fort Collins-based district, and it goes well beyond the rather Democratic-leaning nature of the home of Colorado State University (in what is otherwise a strongly GOP district). Early in her congressional career, for instance, she referred to same-sex marriage as the nation's most pressing issue. After close battles with former State Senate President Stan Matsunaka in 2002 (when the seat was open) and 2004 (when it was not) and a close call against then-State Representative Angie Paccione in 2006, Musgrave has had to focus on more important issues such as agriculture. Still, the Democrats are fielding a candidate once again, and Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Ken Salazar, hopes to make the fourth time a charm for the Donkey Brigade. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 5 (S-Factor 15.3 GOP): This is the most Republican district in all of Colorado, home to Colorado Springs and its notable military and evangelical bases, but Doug Lamborn is not necessarily a safe bet. In the 2006 primary to succeed the now retired Joel Hefley, Lamborn came under fire for a campaign with such detriment that the ethically-minded Hefley did not endorse Lamborn. The candidate Hefley did endorse, former Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Crank, is running once again along with retired Air Force Major General Bentley Rayburn. Hal Bidlack, a retired USAF officer, is the Democrat-in-waiting. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 (S-Factor 9.8 GOP): This white-collar suburban Denver district is one of the nation's wealthiest, and immigration hawk Tom Tancredo has had the privilege of representing this district since 1998 (even surviving the aftermath of the Columbine High School massacre that gripped this district in 1999). After a stint as a second-tier presidential candidate, Tancredo will be stepping aside. Four Republicans have lined up, mortgage banker Wil Armstrong (whose father is former U.S. Senator Bill Armstrong), Secretary of State Mike Coffman, and State Senators Ted Harvey and Steve Ward. Coffman is highest on the totem pole. The winner of the Republican slugfest will face Democrat aviation consultant Hank Eng, who once served as a city councilman in Wisconsin. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 7 (S-Factor 2.3 DEM): This is the most competitive district in all of Colorado: one-third Republicans, one-third Democrats and one-third independents. The seat, based in suburbs of Denver to its west (Lakewood, Wheat Ridge), north (Arvada, Commerce City, Golden) and east (Aurora), became open in 2006 when Bob Beauprez made an ill-fated bid for governor. Despite the competitive nature of this district, freshman Democrat Ed Perlmutter will not face a very strong challenge this year, and should be expected to do fine against financial planner John Lerew. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Next stop: Kentucky.