Kyle Stanley's Perspectives...

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Best regards,

Kyle Stanley

Walter Cronkite (1916-2009)

Tonight, America has lost an icon.

Walter Cronkite, the former CBS newsman and one-time Houstonian that was once billed "the most trusted man in America", passed away this evening at the age of 92.

A native of St. Joseph, Missouri, Cronkite -- the son of a dentist of remote Dutch ancestry, hence the original surname "Krankheyt" -- grew up in Kansas City and later moved to Houston at the age of ten, where he worked for student newspapers attending San Jacinto High School in Houston and the University of Texas at Austin. While Cronkite eventually dropped out of college, his career continued to march on.

After stints in Oklahoma City and Kansas City -- where he met his future wife, the former Betsy Maxwell, Cronkite joined the United Press in 1937 covering World War II battles, the Nuremberg trials, and the Soviet Union while serving as the organization's main reporter in Moscow for two years. Cronkite was recruited by Edward R. Murrow to join CBS News in 1950, and for the next three decades served in a number of roles for the network, including news presenter, documentary host and even game show host (It's News to Me). In one of his earlier roles at CBS, his presence at the Democratic and Republican conventions in the 1952 presidential election that elected Dwight Eisenhower led to the coinage of the term "anchor".

The term "anchor" came in handy on April 16, 1962, when Cronkite took over Douglas Edwards' chair on the CBS Evening News. Despite the wealth of experience Cronkite brought to the table, throughout the 1960s his newscast was often surpassed by The Huntley-Brinkley Report on NBC. As CBS developed a reputation of being more accurate in its presentation of the news, fortunes changed and as the 1960s drew to a close, the CBS Evening News surpassed The Huntley-Brinkley Report in viewership.

Many of America's most enduring and breathtaking moments of the 20th Century came during his tenure at CBS. Some of the more noteworthy news stories included space missions including Apollo 11 and Apollo 13, full-blown scandals by the likes of Watergate, foreign policy adventures including the Cuban missile crisis and the Vietnam War, and one of America's darkest events that unfolded on November 22, 1963, when Cronkite uttered these words:

"From Dallas, Texas, the flash, apparently official: "President Kennedy died at 1 p.m. Central Standard Time." 2 o'clock Eastern Standard Time, some 38 minutes ago."

- Walter Cronkite, November 22, 1963

In 1981, the Presidential Medal of Freedom was awarded to Cronkite, a man who became so much a part of the American lexicon that it even found its way into even CBS programs that had virtually nothing to do with the news, such as All in the Family, where protagonist Archie Bunker referred to the anchor as "Pinko Cronkite" at times. That same year, Cronkite retired from his anchor chair on March 6, 1981 at the age of 65, which at the time was the prerequisite for mandatory retirement at CBS. In his farewell, Cronkite gave his audience a look into what the future held for him:

"Old anchormen, you see, don't fade away; they just keep coming back for more. And that's the way it is: Friday, March 6, 1981."

- Walter Cronkite

After his signature role drew to a close, Cronkite continued to serve a presence -- lending his voice in movies (We're Back: A Dinosaur's Story, Apollo 13), affixing his name to Arizona State University's journalism school and a prestigious journalism award (the Walter Cronkite Award for Excellence in Journalism), becoming the namesake of UT-Austin's Regents Chair in Communication (the College of Communications' dean), and continuing to serve a presence as a special correspondent for CBS, CNN, and NPR -- among other jobs prior to his death from complications due to cerebrovascular disease.

For the most part, I do not remember much of Cronkite, for I was never alive during his time as anchor of the CBS Evening News. However, looking at current events from decades ago -- whether in print, on TV or online, and looking at how Cronkite presented the story as it broke, it was clear that he lived up to his reputation as "the most trusted man in America". While there have been thousands of journalists -- mainstream and independent -- that have left an indelible mark in the minds of their viewers, Cronkite has left behind an unsurpassed legacy in the realm of American journalism, and judging by the current state of the news media -- whether it is as liberal as MSNBC and the New York Times or as conservative as Fox News and The Wall Street Journal -- it is almost impossible to find trust in today's media, which explains a major reason why I run this blog: to offer my own unfettered perspective of the world around me. In short, while there are millions like yours truly who present their own perspectives of the news and thousands who work for America's largest news sources, there will never be another Walter Cronkite.

Walter Cronkite may be gone, but he definitely will not be forgotten...And that's the way it is: Friday, July 17, 2009.

A little touch up here, a little touch up there...

Sorry for the constant delay, but I have been noticeably busy on a wealth of considerable research that will serve as material for future musings as well as a coming revamp with this site (yes, this blog does need fixing). When all is well with my work, I will jump back into this one-man band.

Jack Kemp (1935-2009)

One of the more prominent Republicans of the Reagan era has now joined the Gipper in the giant political arena in the sky. Former football star, Republican congressman, presidential candidate, HUD secretary and 1996 vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp passed away on Saturday at the age of 73 after a bout with cancer.

Jack Kemp's life began on July 13, 1935(1935-07-13) in Los Angeles, the son of a trucking company owner and a Spanish teacher. Growing up as part of a Christian Science family in the predominantly Jewish Wilshire district, Kemp attended the then-heavily Jewish Fairfax High School and preferred to read books on history and philosophy in his spare time. After graduating in 1953, Kemp chose to attend Occidental College -- which used formations common in professional football -- having considered himself too small (5-10/175) for the football programs at USC and UCLA. A 1957 graduate of Occidental who later married his college sweetheart (the former Joanne Main), Kemp set records in javelin and played a number of football positions, most prominently at quarterback.

Jack Kemp's pro football career began in 1957, as a 17th-round NFL Draft pick of the Detroit Lions, only to be cut from the team before the start of the season. After brief stints with the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers -- the latter two as part of taxi squads, as well as additional stints as an Army Reservist and a CFL player (the Calgary Stampeders), Kemp was signed in 1960 as a free agent with the AFL's Los Angeles Chargers. That year, Kemp led the Chargers to the AFL Championship (losing to the Houston Oilers), presiding over a high-scoring offense. After the Chargers moved to San Diego the following year, Kemp led his team to an AFL Championship rematch with the Oilers (who again defeated the Chargers).

But that wasn't the last of Jack Kemp the quarterback. In 1962, the Buffalo Bills claimed Kemp on a spectacular waiver fee of $100. While he solved a much-needed deficiency for the Bills at quarterback, Kemp was not particularly thrilled with the move to western New York. After injuries bogged him down early on, he helped the Bills win three of their last four games of the 1962 season. Beginning in 1963, Kemp and newly acquired former Notre Dame quarterback Daryle Lamonica began a battle for starting quarterback that culminated in two AFL championships for the Bills in 1964 and 1965 (Lamonica later left after four seasons for the Oakland Raiders). Kemp ended his career in 1969, having compiled 114 touchdowns and 183 interceptions for 21,218 yards and a QB rating of 57.3 throughout his career.

Yet Kemp still had not yet reached his 15 minutes of fame. As his career on the gridiron came to a close, Erie County Republican Party officials recruited Kemp, who had previous brushes with politics -- including stints as a volunteer for the campaigns of Barry Goldwater in 1964 (for President) and Ronald Reagan in 1966 (for Governor of California) -- and footed his intellectual attributes in the readings of libertarian and conservative stalwarts such as Goldwater and others, to run for the 39th District in New York, based in a traditionally Democratic suburban portion of the Buffalo area known as the Southtowns. This campaign proved successful, and Kemp served in the district from 1971 to 1989.

While his voting record was generally conservative, it contained a noticeable maverick streak. The "bleeding-heart conservative" championed fiscal policies attributed to supply-side and Chicago economics, including free markets and simplifying of the tax code as well as support for a flat tax, and also expressed support for civil rights legislation, public housing enterprise zones, and the gold standard. In fact, one of the most significant pieces of tax cut legislation linked to President Reagan's legacy is the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, also known as the Kemp-Roth Tax Cut, which passed to the consternation of majority Democrats such as Dan Rostenkowski, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee whose own career ended over a decade later in scandal.

In 1988, Kemp ran for President, and would have become the first member of the House of Representatives to move into the White House since James Garfield. Despite assembling a potpourri of supporters who were drawn to his campaign for various reasons to varying degrees, Kemp ended up losing to the eventual Presidential nominee, Vice President George H.W. Bush, in part due to his relatively libertarian social stances which put Kemp at odds with social conservatives and Religious Right activists who flocked to televangelist Pat Robertson that year. Following the landslide election of Bush 41, Kemp became Secretary of Housing and Urban Development with the promise of implementing the enterprise zones and tenant ownership initiatives that he championed in Congress.

Kemp brought a much needed breath of fresh air to HUD following the controversy surrounding his predecessor Samuel Pierce, as corrupt programs were either restructured or closed entirely and anti-drug and anti-gun measures were enacted. But Kemp faced obstacles that ultimately resulted in his failure to accomplish his intended goals, from the Democratic-controlled Congress restricting his proposed $4 billion tenant ownership proposal to a mere $361 million, to constant battles with the Bush 41 Cabinet and the advent of the Persian Gulf War, which resulted in a disproportionate amount of funding going to defense needs. This, along with Bush 41's reluctance to support such a plan, marked Kemp's tenure at HUD unsuccessful, even though many states created empowerment zones eventually.

Following Bush 41's defeat at the hands of Bill Clinton in 1992, Jack Kemp was viewed as a top candidate of choice for the Presidential nomination in 1996. Despite Republicans gaining control of both houses of Congress for the first time since the Eisenhower Administration, Kemp ultimately decided against such a bid, and it was not surprising given that the selection process by this time had become so controversial that many prominent Republicans such as Colin Powell eventually decided against such a run. Despite this, Kemp eventually became the Vice Presidential running mate to the eventual Republican nominee, Senator Bob Dole, a deficit hawk and proponent of balanced budgets. Many Republican strategists hoped the selection of Kemp would draw conservative and libertarian votes to the more moderate Dole. The ticket proved unsuccessful at the polls, as Clinton was heavily re-elected to a second term.

Since then, Jack Kemp served on a number of political, corporate and advisory boards, chaired an NFL advocacy group promoting amateur football, and founded and chaired Kemp Partners, a consulting firm focused on business and public policy consultancy. Kemp's advocacy following the 1996 election ranged from opposition to abortion and support for immigration reform to health concerns regarding retired NFL veterans, and the Jack F. Kemp Institute of Political Economy at Pepperdine University's School of Public Policy was established to house Kemp's papers and fund annual lectures, among other initiatives.

In addition to his wife Joanne, Jack was a father to four children: two sons -- both former pro football quarterbacks -- and two daughters, who combined have also contributed 17 grandchildren.

Jack Kemp's own life story carries a lot of similiarities to my own personal life story. He was a person whose father worked hard to make a name for himself as a trucking company entrepreneur, read a variety of books on many topics, charted an unusual voting record in Congress, and put his constituents' needs and the future of America ahead of himself. I have never worked for anyone other than my own family, have sophisticated intellectual and cultural tastes, and if I were to be elected to Congress one of these days, I would chart a voting record highly reminiscent of what Jack Kemp compiled, and put the needs of constituents and the country at large -- as well as my shining vision of the future of America -- ahead of myself. This coming from yours truly, a person who does not put balanced budgets ahead of tax cuts or tax cuts ahead of balanced budgets -- but rather balanced budgets with pro-growth tax measures (a flat tax is one example), zero deficit spending, and restrictions of spending to what unites us as Americans (you will have to ask me what I mean by that).

Given that I hail from Fort Bend, a place noted for its wealthy master-planned communities, relatively conservative economic bent, significant base of families with children, and presence of a wide variety of ethnic, cultural and religious backgrounds, this would have been the kind of place that Jack Kemp would have been proud to represent - a true reflection of 21st Century America and the kind of place that should be representative of where the Republican Party wants to go if it wants to win back the hearts of the average American. At a time when the Republican Party is in its seemingly darkest hours, the passing of Kemp should serve as a reminder of how far the party has strayed from reality.

Jack Kemp may have gone home to a better place, but his athletic prowess, political savvy and commitment to a better America will forever live on and will never be forgotten.

The Specter Of What Lies Ahead

As you probably know by now, Arlen Specter (more on the odd color later) is facing the fight of his life. After all, the Republican Senator from Pennsylvania has been the target of party conservatives for quite some time. Polls even showed Specter losing a primary to conservative former Congressman Pat Toomey.

Now Specter has gotten a break, though not the break I expected.

He's switching to the Democratic Party.

Now, before I get ahead of myself, I will be honest about Specter. While he served as an example of moderation in a party that has become more known for self-serving grandstanders than for promoting efficient, fiscally responsible government -- and I felt a tad disappointed in his decision, Specter was well past his prime and I personally expected him to announce his retirement, as Ohio's George Voinovich and Florida's Mel Martinez among others, have already done. Well before Specter's decision, I have considered supporting Toomey, even though he is rather iffy given his recent service as president of the Club for Growth, which became known under Toomey less for its commitment to limited government and more for its challenges of candidates who fit their districts in favor of ideological purity, which explains the GOP's current abysmal state that has now given the Democrats one of their dream goals: a 60-seat, filibuster-proof Senate majority including Specter and Minnesota Senate candidate Al Franken, whose victory remains tied up in a myriad of controversy that provides the perfect cannon fodder for a blockbuster motion picture.

Rebuilding a Republican majority will not happen overnight, and given how badly maligned the party has become, a lot of painful decisions will have to be made over the course of four years. Breaking from hardcore religious right conservatives will be especially tough, as it will not come without the threat of a mass revolt from such organizations as Focus on the Family. These groups are amongst a number of such groups who claim the GOP has lost by not being "conservative enough" when in fact the GOP has lost ground by siding with such groups who in actuality put themselves out of touch with the average American by straying from the principles of fiscal responsibility, limited government, and sound foreign policy, not to mention the fact because of such "conservatives" the party is standing to lose the business vote, Ron Paul libertarians, and environmental conservatives among others.

And while social conservatives do have a role in the party, the religious right exhibits a holier-than-thou militia mentality which not only turns off many voters who are young, pro-business or representative of a moderate or libertarian bent, but such a mentality would drive away even younger evangelicals and even go as far as resorting to personal attacks on certain religious groups. Mitt Romney, for instance, took heat from evangelicals over his Mormon faith which many regarded as a 'cult'. If this portrayal of Mormons became the party consensus, it would end up costing Republicans the votes of Mormons, a group of people that are committed to fiscal prudence, competence and commitment to service beyond their communities. Catholics, Muslims and Jews -- among others -- have also been unfairly targeted as well to varying degrees, and this combined with a tendency by some organizations which claim to be Christian to embrace money and fame as oppose to ministry and service -- not to mention creating the distorted perception that people of faith are bigoted, mean-spirited and one-sided -- will end up resulting in the Republican Party becoming a permanent minority.

As I go on, where do I stand in the Republican Party? Does the future of the Party of Lincoln, Roosevelt, Eisenhower and Reagan have to go through me? Will the future of the GOP in my home base of Fort Bend (which barely went for John McCain) be dependent upon what I say? Now, I keep putting my blogging on and off for a number of reasons -- not the least of which is personal family business that I will not discuss (if you ask me what specific "family business" I am doing, I will IGNORE you). But there are a host of other reasons why it is simply so hard to post: too many things to think about, not confident of what to say, trying to make a good blog look marvelous, darting off into other subjects, csaba, csaba, csaba.

One thing is clear, though: if you're a "moderate Republican" who may be disappointed and feel like there is no place for you, you can be assured that I am staying put in the Republican Party, and I am definitely not leaving. I believe that the solutions to America's pressing problems require a center-right perspective that is based not on the views of talk radio or a beltway think tank, but on the sound principles of smaller government, fiscal responsibility, a strong national defense, environmental stewardship, individual liberty, practical and pragmatic solutions, and a united American society. While the road to recovery will be very rocky -- and I'm sure the Vocal Fringe will be ready to attack and discredit me -- I see light on the other end of the tunnel, and it is this light that holds the path to overcome the most daunting of challenges.

As I get a grasp of where the party wants to go, I will be focusing on the good works of some of my preferences in the GOP House -- Paul Ryan, Jeff Flake, Mike Pence, Chris Smith, Peter Roskam, Peter King, Ron Paul, Tom McClintock, Mark Kirk, Scott Garrett, Eric Cantor, Walter Jones, Ted Poe, Tom Price, and of course my own local congressman, Pete Olson (you'll have to ask me A: why my list of congressional favorites is so bizarre? and B: which Democrats in the House I have a preference for?) -- the Senate is just plain uninteresting, boring, and stuffy.

As time goes on, I will let you know where I stand. I have seen worse situations before, I have persevered in challenges like these, and this only emboldens the belief that I clearly represent the future of America. For now, I'm offering free tissues and shoulders to cry on to disenchanted women and free beer and tavern nuts to grumpy men.

After all, it's better than having nothing to offer for the moment.

Goodbye Minneapolis, hello Saratoga Springs

If you thought the Minnesota Senate race between Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken was political theater, this will have you even more puzzled...

New York's 20th Congressional District
Democrat Scott Murphy - 77,344 (50%)
Republican Jim Tedisco - 77,285 (50%)

It's not going to vindicate Michael Steele, but it's not going to vindicate Obama either. This has to be a comeback story for the Democrats and a disappointment for the GOP, though as Tedisco was leading by a large margin at the beginning.

At least Republicans have two high-stakes gubernatorial elections to look forward to.

Oh, the humanity (of bad habits) and special elections

Just to keep this blog current, I'm whipping up something for today...albeit in a timely fashion. And yes, for the fourth straight month, it's at the END of the month (pfft).

In the news around my home base...

The EPA is testing air quality at schools across the country...including four in Greater Houston, none in Fort Bend (we're pretty lucky) but two in Deer Park. This is not surprising as Deer Park is located with striking distance of the Port of Houston where many chemical plants are located. Link here.

KHOU (Channel 11/CBS) is bidding farewell to sports director Giff Nielsen...This decision is surprising, as despite parent company Belo's laying off of scores of employees, I did not expect Nielsen to leave anytime soon. Of course, he was not let go by Channel 11, instead it is Nielsen himself that has decided to hang up the mic. I wish the Giffer the best of luck in his future endeavors (and yes, he has plans with his future). Link here.

Could the Med Center lose its standing because of stem cells?...The state legislature could be an obstacle to stem cell research funding in Texas because of a provision attached to a budget bill in the State Senate that would restrict funding for embryonic stem cell research. Now of course, I believe cures should be found, and we must do our part to find cures that save and prolong lives. I have become more open on stem cells, for I have lost loved ones to ailments such as Alzheimer's and my mother is diabetic and would benefit from such research. There is broad consensus in saving lives, and while I personally believe that all life -- born and unborn -- is sacred, I now believe that finding a cure should take no limits. Link here.

Which flavor do you want your ballot dipped in?...Fort Bend County and the DOJ appear to be reaching an agreement after four long years on bilingual (or rather, multilingual) voting rights in Fort Bend. Now, while it may seem confusing and controversial, and I believe that English should be the official language of the land, we must try to ensure that while some voters may not speak our lingo, we should at least try to offer them the right to vote in the meantime while they learn to speak English. I know of people who came to this country without speaking a word of English and many of them have gone on to successful careers. After all, my Irish and English ancestors had to face the same situation when they came to the States, even though it had little to do with language and more to do with adapting to life in America. Link here.

Finally, an out-of-town -- yet important -- special election to watch over...With Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand now serving in the Senate seat that once beared the name Hillary Rodham Clinton, Republican State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco and Democratic venture capitalist Scott Murphy are battling it out for the open, usually GOP swing seat and a lot is at stake. As a Republican looking to rebuild the party, I had hopes for Tedisco, who started off with a strong lead -- a strong lead that resulted from Murphy's unknown stock. But Murphy has since pulled even with (and jumped ahead of) Tedisco as Murphy's stock rose while Tedisco's role as the insider in a outsider vs. insider catfight have dragged him down.

Personally, I believe the Tedisco campaign is not what I hoped it would be (anyone who knows me can tell you that I never go for anything less than 110% in everything I do). Better yet, if I ran the GOP in the Empire State, I would have opted for open primaries instead of a closed-door selection process (where both Murphy and Tedisco received their nominations). The Virginia GOP made this mistake with former U.S. Senator John Warner's seat last year, and the seat has since gone Democratic. This congressional race will determine, among other factors, the fates of Governor David Paterson, RNC Chairman Michael Steele, Obamanomics and whatever else may come. A Murphy win vindicates Obama, while a Tedisco win vindicates Steele. As for Paterson, I'm not sure, and I would be more than willing to campaign against Paterson.


Anyway, I'll be banging away on my bongos..literally. Later.

Going Under 55 Isn't Enough

Two months have passed since I last did a real entry (Greetings don't count), so before I write my next musing, I would like to apologize for the delay -- even if I am sick and tired of apologizing on here. Sometimes, trying to make a thoughtful musing can be tedious and consuming, but I also can't just let this puppy sit still for too long a period of time. (I know, I keep forgetting all the time) So, here we go...

2010 is looking to be a year of revenge for Republicans, who look at history -- and tradition -- as a guide. In America, the party not in control of the White House tends to gain seats in midterm elections, largely as a result of controversy and misguided policies involving the White House, such as the tax controversies committed by some members of the Obamastration. For instance, after the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976, the GOP went on to win 15 seats in 1978 and then 34 seats in 1980 as Ronald Reagan knocked Carter out of office. The Democrats later gained back 27 of these seats in 1982.

But not all history goes as planned. In 1928, the GOP gained a net 32 seats as it elected Herbert Hoover to the White House on the basis of a strong economy. Then Hoover's popularity crashed as the nation began to experience the Great Depression, and the Democrats gained a staggering 52 seats in 1930 and 97 seats in 1932 when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected -- a total of 149 seats. The Democrats then broke with tradition in 1934, gaining 9 more seats, and then gaining an additional 12 in 1936, reducing the GOP to a paltry 88 seats in the ensuing Congress. But Republicans rebounded in the following election, gaining 81 seats in 1938.

Finally, there's two of the last three midterm elections to look at. In 1998, the Democrats gained five seats despite GOP expectations to gain seats as a result of the six year itch, where the party not in control of the Presidency expects to gain seats in the middle of a president's second term. The GOP was hurt by its attacks on the morality of a then-popular President Bill Clinton, which was largely exacerbated by an infamous sex scandal involving a White House intern named Monica Lewinsky. In 2002, tradition failed to materialize again as Democrats lost eight seats in the wake of redistricting and the War on Terror, the result of a combination of increased political power in the South and West and perceptions that Democrats were anti-military and anti-security. The odd election out in this bunch was 2006, when Democrats gained 31 seats and control of the House amidst a Bush Administration and congressional leadership mired in controversy from the War in Iraq to Hurricane Katrina to Terri Schiavo (yes, the person writing this is one Republican that wishes it could have been done without the "heckuva job" mentality).

Now, after losing 21 more seats in 2008, the GOP has regrouped and has begun to amplify its own message of change. One notable example of the winds of change that have transpired are those at the Republican National Committee, where former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele became the first African-American to chair the RNC and whose impact has already been felt in GOP circles. Another example is the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is now chaired by Rep. Pete Sessions of Dallas and whose website has been radically transformed -- albeit in a rather minimalist form reminiscent of a very elaborate cell phone website (supposedly aimed at putting the GOP in tune with young voters -- a demographic lost to Obama by a 2-1 margin).

Generally, Hill committees (of which the NRCC is one such committee) tend to emphasize most efforts on incumbents of the opposing party who amassed 55 percent or less of the vote in the last election. The reason is because candidates who finish at such levels are vulnerable and subject to defeat in the next election. For instance, in 2006 a total of 36 Republicans won with 55 percent or less of the vote. Of those, 20 have not come back for the 111th Congress. 12 of them chose to run for reelection and were defeated, while eight others decided not to seek re-election or seek higher office, and of those eight only four of them remain Republican, leaving 16 Republican survivors of the D-Trip's 2008 dodgeball contest.

For 2010, the number of choice for Democrats now applies to a select class of 35 Republicans:

• Mike Rogers (Alabama 3, 54.0 percent)
  
• Don Young (Alaska, 50.2 percent)
  
• John Shadegg (Arizona 3, 54.1 percent)
  
• Dan Lungren (California 3, 49.5 percent)
  
• Tom McClintock (California 4, 50.3 percent) - freshman
  
• David Dreier (California 26, 52.7 percent)
• Ken Calvert (California 44, 51.2 percent) - was not targeted (by the D-Trip)
  
• Dana Rohrabacher (California 46, 52.6 percent) - was not targeted
  
• Brian Bilbray (California 50, 50.3 percent) - return appearance
  
• Bill Posey (Florida 15, 53.1 percent) - freshman, seat was not targeted
  
• Mario Diaz-Balart (Florida 25, 53.1 percent)
• Mark Kirk (Illinois 10, 52.6 percent) - return appearance
• Judy Biggert (Illinois 13, 53.6 percent)
• Mark Souder (Indiana 3, 55.0 percent)
• Lynn Jenkins (Kansas 2, 50.6 percent) - freshman and 2008 gain
• Brett Guthrie (Kentucky 2, 52.6 percent)
• Joseph Cao (Louisiana 2, 49.5 percent) - freshman and 2008 gain
• John Fleming (Louisiana 4, 48.1 percent) - freshman
  
• Bill Cassidy (Louisiana 6, 48.1 percent) - freshman and 2008 gain
• Thad McCotter (Michigan 11, 51.4 percent) - return appearance, was not targeted
  
• Erik Paulsen (Minnesota 3, 48.5 percent) - freshman
• Michele Bachmann (Minnesota 6, 46.4 percent) - return appearance
• Blaine Luetkemeyer (Missouri 9, 50.0 percent) - freshman
  
• Lee Terry (Nebraska 2, 51.9 percent) - return appearance
• Dean Heller (Nevada 2, 51.8 percent) - return appearance
• Leonard Lance (New Jersey 7, 50.2 percent) - freshman
• Christopher Lee (New York 26, 55.0 percent) - freshman
• Jean Schmidt (Ohio 2, 44.8 percent) - return appearance
• Pat Tiberi (Ohio 12, 54.8 percent) - was not targeted
  
• Jim Gerlach (Pennsylvania 6, 52.1 percent) - return appearance
  
• Henry Brown (South Carolina 1, 51.9 percent)
• Joe Wilson (South Carolina 2, 53.7 percent)
• Michael McCaul (Texas 10, 53.9 percent)
• Pete Olson (Texas 22, 52.4 percent) - freshman; constituents include yours truly
  
• Dave Reichert (Washington 8, 52.8 percent) - return appearance

Those who made return appearances to this dreadful list will need to find new ways to convince voters who took the other side the last two times that they're the right choice for the district, while freshmen who made the list should see the results of this election as a starting point to gain support for future battles. Meanwhile, those who were not even minor cannon fodder for the Democrats in 2008 will especially need to rethink their election strategies as they generally faced minor candidates who did not even attract the allure of the national party and therefore took the last election for granted. Some of these incumbents though are already likely top targets including Bachmann, whose McCarthyite demands for a patriotism test just weeks before the election almost cost her a relatively safe GOP seat in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul, and Cao, whose inspring election to Congress as the first-ever Vietnamese American on Capitol Hill is clouded by the fact that it happened in a very blue New Orleans seat that was ground zero for Hurricane Katrina and is majority African American, not to mention the fact that Cao wasn't indicted former Congressman William Jefferson. So much for the money in the freezer.

While the strategy of 55-and-under worked for Democrats in 2008 -- and the NRCC is now using the same tack for its 2010 ambitions, Republicans will need a more ambitious strategy if they really want to take a 2010 resurgence seriously that not only plays on the vulnerability of a candidate according to his election totals, but also aims to broaden the GOP base beyond one that is basically seen as older, white and rural -- a recipe for long-term electoral disaster. While the list of Democrats that fall into this trap is very large, it should be large enough to give the GOP an even bigger pool of potential districts to cut the electoral deficit down to 20 points or less -- but Republicans should be running in all 435 districts regardless of the odds stacked for or against them. The following Democrats won in 2008 with no more than 70 percent -- well over two-thirds -- of the vote:

• Bobby Bright (Alabama 2, 50.2 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
  
• Parker Griffith (Alabama 5, 51.5 percent) - freshman
• Ann Kirkpatrick (Arizona 1, 55.9 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
• Harry Mitchell (Arizona 5, 53.2 percent) - 2006 pickup
• Raul Grijalva (Arizona 7, 63.3 percent)
  
• Gabrielle Giffords (Arizona 8, 54.7 percent) - 2006 pickup
• Mike Thompson (California 1, 68.2 percent)
  
• Ellen Tauscher (California 10, 65.2 percent)
  
• Jerry McNerney (California 11, 55.3 percent) - 2006 pickup
• Anna Eshoo (California 14, 69.8 percent)
• Lois Capps (California 23, 68.1 percent)
• Brad Sherman (California 27, 68.6 percent)
• Adam Schiff (California 29, 69.0 percent)
• Jane Harman (California 36, 68.7 percent)
• Linda Sanchez (California 39, 69.7 percent)
• Joe Baca (California 43, 69.2 percent)
• Loretta Sanchez (California 47, 69.5 percent)
• Susan Davis (California 53, 68.5 percent)
  
• Jared Polis (Colorado 2, 62.6 percent) - freshman
• John Salazar (Colorado 3, 61.6 percent)
• Betsy Markey (Colorado 4, 56.2 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
• Ed Perlmutter (Colorado 7, 63.5 percent) - 2006 pickup
• Joe Courtney (Connecticut 2, 65.7 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Jim Himes (Connecticut 4, 51.3 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
• Chris Murphy (Connecticut 5, 59.2 percent) - 2006 pickup
• Allen Boyd (Florida 2, 61.9 percent)
  
• Alan Grayson (Florida 8, 52.0 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
• Robert Wexler (Florida 19, 66.2 percent)
  
• Ron Klein (Florida 22, 54.7 percent) - 2006 pickup
• Suzanne Kosmas (Florida 24, 57.2 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
• Sanford Bishop (Georgia 2, 68.9 percent)
• Jim Marshall (Georgia 8, 57.2 percent)
• John Barrow (Georgia 12, 66.0 percent)
• David Scott (Georgia 13, 69.0 percent)
  
• Walt Minnick (Idaho 1, 50.6 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
  
• Melissa Bean (Illinois 8, 60.7 percent)
• Debbie Halvorson (Illinois 11, 58.4 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
  
• Bill Foster (Illinois 14, 57.7 percent) - midterm pickup in 2008
  
• Joe Donnelly (Indiana 2, 67.1 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Andre Carson (Indiana 7, 65.1 percent)
• Brad Ellsworth (Indiana 8, 64.7 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Baron Hill (Indiana 9, 57.8 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Bruce Braley (Iowa 1, 64.6 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Dave Loebsack (Iowa 2, 57.2 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Leonard Boswell (Iowa 3, 56.4 percent)
• Dennis Moore (Kansas 3, 56.4 percent)
• John Yarmuth (Kentucky 3, 59.4 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Ben Chandler (Kentucky 6, 64.7 percent)
• Chellie Pingree (Maine 1, 54.9 percent) - freshman
  
• Mike Michaud (Maine 2, 67.4 percent)
• Frank Kratovil (Maryland 1, 49.1 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
  
• John Sarbanes (Maryland 3, 69.7 percent)
• Barney Frank (Massachusetts 4, 68.0 percent)
• Bart Stupak (Michigan 1, 65.0 percent)
• Mark Schauer (Michigan 7, 48.8 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
  
• Gary Peters (Michigan 9, 52.1 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
  
• Tim Walz (Minnesota 1, 62.5 percent) - 2006 pickup
  
• Betty McCollum (Minnesota 4, 68.4 percent)
  
• Jim Oberstar (Minnesota 8, 67.7 percent)
• Travis Childers (Mississippi 1, 54.5 percent) - midterm pickup in 2008
  
• Bennie Thompson (Mississippi 2, 69.1 percent)
• Russ Carnahan (Missouri 3, 66.4 percent)
• Ike Skelton (Missouri 4, 65.9 percent)
• Emanuel Cleaver (Missouri 5, 64.4 percent)
• Shelley Berkley (Nevada 1, 67.6 percent)
• Dina Titus (Nevada 3, 47.4 percent) - freshman and 2008 pickup
  
• Carol Shea-Porter (New Hampshire 1, 51.7 percent)
• OPEN SEAT (New Hampshire 2, 56.4 percent) -- Paul Hodes is running for the open U.S. Senate seat of Republican Judd Gregg
  
• John Adler (New Jersey 3, 52.1 percent)
• Frank Pallone (New Jersey 6, 66.9 percent)
• Steve Rothman (New Jersey 9, 69.5 percent)
• Rush Holt (New Jersey 12, 63.1 percent)
• Martin Heinrich (New Mexico 1, 55.7 percent)
• Harry Teague (New Mexico 2, 56.0 percent)
• Ben Lujan (New Mexico 3, 56.7 percent)
• Tim Bishop (New York 1, 58.4 percent)
• Steve Israel (New York 2, 66.9 percent)
• Carolyn McCarthy (New York 4, 64.0 percent)
• Michael McMahon (New York 13, 60.9 percent)
• Nita Lowey (New York 18, 68.5 percent)
• John Hall (New York 19, 58.7 percent)
• VACANT SEAT (New York 20, 62.1 percent by now-U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand)
• Paul Tonko (New York 21, 62.1 percent)
• Maurice Hinchey (New York 22, 66.3 percent)
• Mike Arcuri (New York 24, 52.0 percent)
• Dan Maffei (New York 25, 54.8 percent)
• Eric Massa (New York 29, 51.0 percent)
• Bob Etheridge (North Carolina 2, 66.9 percent)
• David Price (North Carolina 4, 63.3 percent)
• Mike McIntyre (North Carolina 7, 68.8 percent)
• Larry Kissell (North Carolina 8, 55.4 percent)
• Heath Shuler (North Carolina 11, 62.0 percent)
• Brad Miller (North Carolina 13, 65.9 percent)
• Earl Pomeroy (North Dakota, 62.0 percent)
• Steve Chabot (Ohio 1, 52.4 percent)
• Charlie Wilson (Ohio 6, 62.3 percent)
• Dennis Kucinich (Ohio 10, 57.0 percent)
• Betty Sutton (Ohio 13, 64.5 percent)
• Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio 15, 45.9 percent)
• John Boccieri (Ohio 16, 55.4 percent)
• Zack Space (Ohio 18, 59.9 percent)
• Kurt Schrader (Oregon 5, 54.3 percent)
• Kathy Dahlkemper (Pennsylvania 3, 51.2 percent)
• Jason Altmire (Pennsylvania 4, 55.9 percent)
• Joe Sestak (Pennsylvania 7, 59.6 percent)
• Patrick Murphy (Pennsylvania 8, 56.8 percent)
• Chris Carney (Pennsylvania 10, 56.3 percent)
• Paul Kanjorski (Pennsylvania 11, 51.6 percent)
• John Murtha (Pennsylvania 12, 57.9 percent)
• Allyson Schwartz (Pennsylvania 13, 62.8 percent)
• Tim Holden (Pennsylvania 17, 63.7 percent)
• Patrick Kennedy (Rhode Island 1, 68.6 percent)
• John Spratt (South Carolina 5, 61.6 percent)
• Jim Clyburn (South Carolina 6, 67.5 percent)
• Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (South Dakota, 67.6 percent)
• Lincoln Davis (Tennessee 4, 58.8 percent)
• Jim Cooper (Tennessee 5, 65.9 percent)
• Ruben Hinojosa (Texas 15, 65.7 percent)
• Chet Edwards (Texas 17, 53.0 percent)
• Ciro Rodriguez (Texas 23, 55.8 percent)
• Lloyd Doggett (Texas 25, 65.8 percent)
• Solomon Ortiz (Texas 27, 57.9 percent)
• Henry Cuellar (Texas 28, 68.7 percent)
• Jim Matheson (Utah 2, 63.4 percent)
• Glenn Nye (Virginia 2, 52.4 percent)
• Tom Perriello (Virginia 5, 50.1 percent)
• Jim Moran (Virginia 8, 67.9 percent)
• Gerry Connolly (Virginia 11, 54.7 percent)
• Jay Inslee (Washington 1, 67.8 percent)
• Rick Larsen (Washington 2, 62.4 percent)
• Brian Baird (Washington 3, 64.0 percent)
• Norm Dicks (Washington 6, 66.9 percent)
• Adam Smith (Washington 9, 65.5 percent)
• Nick Rahall (West Virginia 3, 66.9 percent)
• Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin 2, 69.3 percent)
• Ron Kind (Wisconsin 3, 63.2 percent)
• Dave Obey (Wisconsin 7, 60.8 percent)
• Steve Kagen (Wisconsin 8, 54.0 percent)

So out of 257 seats held by Democrats (including the three vacant Dem seats in California, Illinois and New York), 138 -- over half -- can be seen as even remotely vulnerable to a challenge from Republicans. In some of these districts, it is impossible in the present for a Republican to compete adequately. And in a select few, the Democratic incumbent's fall under 70 may have been the result of a third-party challenge -- whether from a liberal who considers the incumbent "Republican Lite" or from a conservative who finds the incumbent too extreme. But other seats hold ripe opportunities for Republicans, such as the vacant seat in New York's 20th District that was vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand after her appointment to Hillary Rodham Clinton's former Senate seat when the latter became Secretary of State.

But relying on numbers alone will not expand the GOP base. Republicans need to also reach out to underserved segments of the voter rolls that dot the American political lexicon: the young, the educated, the minorities, the party switchers, the suburbanites, and other groups filled with people who find themselves to be Republicans at heart but are turned off by some of the toxic elements of the GOP stew.

Simply put, if you want a regional party that bleeds members by the minute and imposes litmus tests to please a handful of activists who put themselves ahead of their country, then you are fine with business as usual in the GOP. But if you want a party that appeals to a patchwork quilt of Americans, that offers compelling solutions to both today's problems and what may hold for the future, and that unites us as one America, then Republicans need to get the message if they haven't already, leave the divisive culture wars and wedging of the past behind, and look towards a new day of optimism, strength, freedom and fairness. 2010 will be a very big test to see if that new day will dawn, and if it hasn't by then, we simply have no one to blame but ourselves.

It's a Super Sunday!

Tomorrow is the day every football fan in America has been waiting for. Super Bowl XLIII will take place this year in Tampa, Florida and will see Ben Roethlisberger and his Pittsburgh Steelers take on Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals. This will be an interesting matchup, and as with every Super Sunday, I will be watching the game.

Where Do We Go From Here?

With 2008 slipping into the history books, I am now making sense as to how the results of the 2008 election turned out the way they did. From what yours truly can explain and understand, it is neither worth writing home about nor whining and complaining over. It is not a step forward or a step back. And it is definitely not a comparison of one America versus the other America. Instead, it served as the lesson of a year where the overwhelming desire for change and forward progress in America overtook the status quo of experience and jaded reflections of our glorious past.

The Democrats emerged victorious on November 4th with the capture of the White House and the pickup of several GOP seats, some of which elected Republicans for decades. They also made gains in the Senate, gained the Governor's Mansion in the swing state of Missouri, and broke into many reliably Republican suburbs, while sweeping Republicans out of New England in the House, shutting Senate Republicans out of the West Coast, and cutting into vaunted GOP strongholds by the likes of Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana, generally restricting Republican victories to Southern states such as Texas and Georgia and Appalachian states by the likes of West Virginia and Kentucky, and stealing one of Nebraska's five electoral votes in the process. With a bad economy, infighting between Republicans over the presidential ticket, and fatigue from a presidency that was anything but inspiring, I knew it was going to be a disaster waiting to happen, but in the end the disaster turned out to be milder than I thought it would be while also providing the prospects of a new Republican future.

A Personal Reflection

For me, 2008 began with a focus on the GOP primary for the 22nd Congressional District here in Texas. Sprawled out over a narrow strip of four counties (in geographical order): Fort Bend, Brazoria, Harris and Galveston, and taking a mixture of working-class small towns, minority enclaves, and affluent suburbs (one or two of these three clusters is definitely rising in population), it was the "accidental representative" in Democrat Nick Lampson versus a field of ten Republicans whose bases were largely derived from their experiences - and their roots. Shelley Sekula Gibbs was the seat warmer in Christmas of 2006 after a colorful career on Houston City Council, but she already damaged herself with her sloppy handling of the dismissal of Tom DeLay's staff, which is not uncommon with new members of Congress.

Ten candidates filed on my side of the fence to take out Lampson. In the early stages, the candidate I endorsed was Dean Hrbacek, the former mayor of Sugar Land whose six years were marked by a time of prosperity for Fort Bend with the beginning stages of Sugar Land Town Square and a host of other economic development initiatives and continued a long line of steady Sugar Land leadership and growth that continues to this day. While the campaign was short-lived (fifth place courtesy of terrible results in the Harris portion), the effort and hard work espoused by me, his supporters and his staff was nothing less than our 110 percent. In the end, I threw my support in the runoff and general election behind Pete Olson, a former Senatorial aide to Senators Phil Gramm and John Cornyn who quickly locked the establishment vote after the ten candidates were set in stone.

But despite the attention given to this race, the primary was overshadowed by the 2-to-1 Democratic edge in Fort Bend and many other large Texas counties thanks to a competitive primary between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and efforts by talk-radio kingpin Rush Limbaugh and others to entice Republicans to cross over and aid Hillary. I knew this problem was evident at my precinct convention in a wealthy Sugar Land neighborhood where many of the guests were walking into the Democrats' convention (though this has more to do with the fact that Texas Democrats have a hybrid primary/caucus fusion versus our plain GOP primaries, and I know very well that there are some Democrats who want to do away or at least tinker with the Texas Two-Step). The only thing that differentiated us from the crowd was the fact that we generally wore suits, slacks and leather shoes versus the usual commonwealth cloths of the Dem caucusers. My uncle, who can best be classified as a libertarian-leaning, anti-Vocal Fringe Republican but cast his vote for Hillary, neither attended their caucus nor wanted to join my convention.

The problems were further exacerbated by the county convention, where our predominantly affluent and Republican precinct fielded a mere 27 delegates out of 40, and some precincts - even ones that John McCain won - even reported ONE delegate. "If you don't like McCain, get over it" became a rallying cry. Of course, John McCain was not my first choice, for my political capital was behind former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani to begin with, and then after Rudy left the race, rallied to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday until he dropped out as well. In my first-ever county convention, while I applied for a state-level delegate slot and lost out to more experienced Republicans, my shortcomings can be seen as only the beginning of my political career as I represent the future of the party.

While I did not campaign between the end of the convention and Election Day (for personal and non-political reasons I am not going to state), I continued to contribute whatever efforts I could through the internet. My curiosity with the nature of the House races and the competitiveness waged by many Democratic candidates inspired me to launch my own research into the most important election in our lifetime. My massive project, cleverly titled The Nifty Fifty House Party, was the end result, and it took an enormous chunk of political capital to do. (As a measure of clarity, the ratings as I predicted then are not what I predicted in the end, for I accidentally erased my final predictions on Election Night.)

A Mixed Blessing

On Election Day, I clicked the vote for McCain on the hope that the old McCain (the earmark-busting maverick who fought for what was right even as his colleagues skewered him) would come back in place of the McCain that emerged (a Bush 43 clone who ditched his maverick image and began to back a great number of the President's flawed "compassionate conservatism" ideals). The campaign received a boost with Sarah Palin who galvanized the conservative base and is now being pegged as the leading GOP candidate for 2012. However, that boost was short-lived as McCain's feeble attempts to galvanize the so-called "base" turned off some more principled conservatives who balked at McCain's support for the artery-clogging $700 billion bailout, while some more sensible Republicans who found fault in Palin's "attack dog" mantra and hardline conservatism shifted their votes to Obama or a third-party candidate. Not all is lost, for Palin will have four more years to cultivate and salvage her image as will many other Republicans who are waiting for their big moment. After all, we may even get a relative unknown to step up to the plate in 2012 just as we did with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Whether or not a resurgence will happen by then depends on GOP efforts in the next four years and Obama's record at the White House.

That being said, this is a historic time for America. Barack Obama has broken barriers that some envisioned would never be broken, and even inspired many of my fellow Republicans, some of whom may have crossed the line to cast their ballots for the Illinois Senator. As someone who had the blessing of attending a high school whose largely affluent student body came from a variety of ethnic, cultural, social, economic and political backgrounds, had enormous respect from various faculty members and parents, and had a variety of friends that ranged from cheerleaders and football players to band leaders and drama superstars, guitar aficionados and hip-hop aspirants to computer buffs and DECA marketers, I celebrate the arrival of a new era in America that is defined by what unites us as one country instead of what divides us, and thus far Obama has put together a blue-ribbon team of Cabinet appointees that spans across the political spectrum. At the same time, the failures of 2008 serve to spark the beginning of a much-needed renewal for the Party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan.

The race was a wake-up call for my entire family, which usually votes Republican, albeit in a rather negative fashion. My great-aunt, a former GOP precinct chair in Montgomery County north of Houston, or Monco as I personally like to call it, thought young people who turned out strongly for Obama should not be allowed to vote. Another uncle of mine, himself an intelligent business conservative, thought the GOP may have lost the business vote because of the social conservatives' influence. And my cousin, who like me was somewhat undecided before swinging towards McCain in the end, asked me if I was freaking out. The answer? I definitely did not because it is just plain stupid to assume the sky is falling when the vote doesn't go my way. To me, I saw Barack Obama's historic victory not as a shortcoming of GOP efforts, but rather as a mandate on the negative connotations of a stale, outdated GOP brand in need of a good dose of WD-40, and judging from the Facebook status updates on Election Night, a lot of my old high school friends, Republican and Democrat, espoused many views from being scared about having a Democrat (or in one case, a "babykiller") in the White House, to savoring an Obama victory and declaring "It's a beautiful night". For what it was worth, the election was nothing more than a mixed blessing.

The Meaning of Being Republican

The GOP's problem went well beyond the presidential race. The blame game was alive and well even before the final votes were counted. Moderates want to say that social conservatives' litmus tests and purity police are responsible for the party's decline, while conservatives argue that the party is simply not being conservative or "American" enough. In fact, they are both wrong...they both lost for a variety of circumstances. Some of the moderates that lost either faced difficult situations (especially in regards to the Obama vote and external economic issues which played a role in the defeat of Michigan's Joe Knollenberg and Connecticut's Christopher Shays) or caved in to the Religious Right (as Iowa's Jim Leach did in his support of anti-poker legislation, which I found rather stupid and most likely led to his defeat in 2006). But many moderates also retired as well, among them names like Ohio's Ralph Regula, Minnesota's Jim Ramstad and Virginia's Tom Davis. Meanwhile, for conservatives, it is rather silly that they revel in the increasing conservative ranks of the GOP when in fact a lot of their own went down in defeat as well, from Colorado's Marilyn Musgrave and Idaho's Bill Sali out west to Tim Walberg in Michigan, who was elected in 2006 with help from hardcore conservative groups who helped defeat a more moderate Republican.

Republicans will also have to deal with shifting winds in one of its most reliable voting blocs. The evangelical community is moving more towards a Christian Democracy-inspired platform that diversifies beyond gay marriage and abortion to include the environment, poverty and other issues that unite younger evangelicals. Mike Huckabee is one such example. To go further, I would have cast my vote against Prop 8 if I were in California, to the detriment of my own socially conservative family, because we are long past the days of Jim Crow. Imposing a ban on a certain segment of the population for superficial reasons (i.e. our children will lose their innocence, our children will be indoctrinated, etc.) would have created a sheer ripple effect across the deserts and mountains of California on down to its glorious coastline, and it would have also depressed California's already nightmarish financial situation with companies being forced into anti-discrimination lawsuits, among other irregularities. And I personally would never be a homosexual in any way, shape or form.

Going even further into perspective, on my views on abortion lies a fine line between a social conservative and a Religious Right conservative - I am none of the latter and some of the former in the form of my free subscription to the Consistent Life Ethic which contradicts some of the GOP's platform on issues such as the death penalty, and my middling stance on Planned Parenthood (which should focus more on other services such as emergency contraception, cancer screenings, STD testing, and menopause treatments). And if the Vocal Fringe keeps on bastardizing social conservatism and conservatism in general to the point where conservatives of any stripe are seen as a "hate group", then just like Lyndon B. Johnson once told an aide "We have lost the South for a generation", Republicans might as well lose the coastlines, the well-informed, the youth, and more troubling, the business vote and the suburbs, for a generation, and nothing would boil my blood more than for this to happen. To put it in perspective, the government is one nation under God and will continue to be, but the government is not supposed to be God. The Religious Right is more interested in money and power than ministry and scripture.

Additionally, some of these "conservatives" have either turned out to be hypocrites as evidenced by the falls of some social conservative champions. For starters, Idaho's Larry Craig was seen as a family values conservative but later became known for an act of wide stance cottaging in a bathroom stall at the airport in Minneapolis. And there are also many so-called "conservatives" who have been anything but conservative. For me, there is nothing conservative about record deficits, wasteful spending, and butting into the lives of ordinary Americans (whether in the form of religious theocracy or overzealous nanny statism) simply to please the interests of groups that lack patience such as parents who think it is better to invest their life savings in a concert featuring a tween pop sensation (but not necessarily the stars themselves) that will become only a memory come 2012 as opposed to investing in a college education which lasts a lifetime. People will think I am being an anti-family grinch for what I just said, but we must face hard reality: we cannot mortgage our country on our children's backs anymore, and this is NOT a Democrat or Republican position, this is a REAL conservative position. Parents must be parents, not friends, to their children, and must not be afraid to say NO. Yes, your kids might as well go ahead and cry their eyes out, but my TRUE conservative parents taught me to put what matters long-term ahead of any short-term trend that exists. In full, being a Republican is supposed to mean a belief in fiscal restraint, personal responsibility, a strong and prepared defense, and a hearty commitment to the American Dream, NOT attaching costly and unrelated riders to major bills, conquering and dividing electorates, misplacing economic and defense priorities for personal gain, and prodding into the lives of everyday Americans.

As Ronald Reagan put it:

"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals–if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories. The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is."

- Ronald Reagan, from Reason Magazine, July 1975

Additionally, Reagan also stated that "All great change in America begins at the dinner table". This is personally true for me as change in America begins with a simple family dinner and a nice family conversation, focused on a reinforcement of family tradition and a detailed foresight into tomorrow where good advice and the American Spirit are fostered. While Reagan serves as an inspiration to me and millions of Republicans, a need for a new brand of conservative leadership is needed to continue the conservative legacy. Reagan has died long ago and is not coming back. It is time to adapt the principles of our past to a new generation of Americans committed to the future.

A New Stage Is Being Set

Now if I were to play my cards, conservatism will be entering a new stage: where aiming to reduce the national debt (inevitable given the bailout bonanza on Capitol Hill), provide a clean environment that also benefits our economy (the Pickens Plan is a giant step forward), and offer an improved, efficient infrastructure (but definitely NOT in the form of the pork-laden Trans-Texas Corridor) will become integral parts of the platform, where constructive issues like immigration, education and health care will be offered in the form of sensible, efficient alternatives to the Democrats' expected bureaucracy and bungling courtesy of such committee chairs as House Ways and Means Committee boss Charlie Rangel, and where hot-button social issues will take a more pragmatic turn, including finding innovative ways to reduce abortion as opposed to the Prohibitionist mantra of simply criminalizing the practice, because given the sickening nature of abortion, there will always be women that have to have one regardless of any efforts that aim to put a stop to it.

Summing it up, the GOP needs to regroup and get its ducks in order. Blaming social conservatives will not work because not all are "easy to command" types dictated by figures like James Dobson, but rather tend to follow the same ethically sound message that I follow in what I call The Ethic. Booting out the business Republicans will further depress the ranks because they provide the innovation, charisma and entrepreneurial spirit that sews the fabric of our future (and in a sense, may force such voters to vote against their interests). Telling the libertarian Ron Paul Republicans to hit the road is elitist at best as they share many of the same values of freedom and liberty that many true conservatives do. Attacking moderates will do nothing more than burn down the big tent and will only serve to relegate Republicans to dreaded permanent minority status. And making us believe that "deficits don't matter" will boil fiscal conservatives' blood and force the GOP down the same road as the Whigs, a road that we are not willing to take and which will also doom the American Dream.

As a Republican who stands strong in the face of adversity along the lines of Lincoln, cherishes the benefits of a clean environment ala Roosevelt, praises the effectiveness of a top-shelf infrastructure that partially bears the namesake of Eisenhower, and espouses the sunny optimism and peace through strength as defined by Reagan, I find the party at a troubling crossroads. Members of my family don't even know the Republicans anymore, and it seems sometimes that I am the only Republican left. With that in mind, I am looking forward to helping rebuild the party and restore its commitment to freedom, prosperity and sound policy. The challenges I will have to deal with won't be easy, but I am very optimistic that with a broad coalition of committed Americans who want to see a return to reason, a restoration of common sense, and a renewal of the American Dream, the Republican Party can make a comeback.

Today, I no longer consider myself a Republican. I am a New Republican. And I am ready to make the commitment to bring a New Day to America. The Elephant Stampede will roar more than it ever has before. The big tent will rise again.

Season's Greetings!

Just to let you, the reader, know...be it Christmas (today), Hanukkah (started at sunset on the 21st, continues through sunset on the 29th), Kwanzaa (26th until New Year's) or whatever holiday you celebrate...Season's Greetings and a Happy (and more optimistic) New Year!

And so Election 2008 comes to a close...

...with tonight's race in State Senate District 17. With 99 percent of the vote (two precincts still at large) in, my new State Senator is Joan Huffman.

Republican Joan Huffman 24,221 (56.31%)
Democrat Chris Bell 18,792 (43.68%)

The Elephant Stampede holds this one. With that, the most important election season of our time draws to a close.

More Huffin' CowBell...

It's now just past nine...

With under two-thirds of the precincts reporting...

Joan Huffman 18,796 (56.62%), Chris Bell 14,397 (43.37%)

I expected a competitive race, but given name recognition and overconfident donkeys on parade, not like this.

One last race...

Hello, it's me again, and while it has been a rather long time since I last truly posted (not including Greetings), I can now report one last race for 2008...which is in my home base.

Between dinner, untangling spare Christmas lights that aren't being used and a showing of a recent film known as The Darjeeling Limited on pay TV (HBO Signature, specifically), I am tracking the Texas Senate runoff in District 17 between Democrat (and former gubernatorial candidate) Chris Bell and Republican Joan Huffman.

As of 7:47 (update and revision)...

Huffman 11,286 (62.33%), Bell 6,820 (37.66%)

There's more to come tonight.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Today is Thanksgiving Day, and like many Americans I will be spending this day with my extended family. Regardless of whatever situation may come, and even though this may not be the best of times but perhaps instead may turn out to be the worst of times in recent memory, we shall be grateful and give thanks for what we have achieved in our daily lives and shall look forward to the future as we pull through in these trying times with an uncertain economy already in progress, a period of transition and rebuilding within our environs, and a daunting challenge to renew our standing in the world. While I personally find it very difficult to display a sense of optimism with the events that have transpired, being optimistic about the future is one aspect that I take into account every day. After all, there is nothing better for me to think about on this day than being thankful to those who have been thankful to me over the years and to hope for a better tomorrow.

Best regards,

Kyle S.

The results are in!

Sorry for the delay, but here are the final results from tonight:

Barack Obama is now the 44th President of the United States, having officially been declared the winner of the race just after the West Coast polls closed.

Democrats have picked up Senate seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado and New Mexico, with competitive races in Georgia, Oregon, Minnesota and Alaska still undecided. The current Senate composition for the 111th Congress is 56 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 4 seats to be decided.

A number of GOP House seats have gone to the Democrats, though a few seats that were held by Democrats are now in the Republicans' hands (see below for one seat).

The Democrats also picked up a governorship in Missouri.

And here in Fort Bend, the results are a grab bag...

Democrat Chris Bell and Republican Joan Huffman (my two picks) will go to a runoff for the State Senate District 17 seat.

Democrat Richard Morrison has edged Republican Greg Ordeneaux for County Commissioner Precinct 1.

Sugar Land voters supported all four parts of a plan to bring a Cultural Entertainment District here, Missouri City residents voted strongly in favor of a bond issue to improve city parks and the golf course at Quail Valley, and Rosenberg residents (two-thirds in fact) rejected a zoning ordinance proposal.

And in Congressional District 22, Republican Pete Olson defeats incumbent Democrat Nick Lampson to take District 22 back for the Republicans.

As for the White House: John McCain won here...with 50.9 percent compared to 48.6 percent for Obama.

More details later.

Welcome to Election Day 2008

Today is Tuesday, November 4, 2008...Election Day.

Today, all across the United States, millions of Americans will be casting their votes in a historic election that aims to set public policy for the next generation. There are many scenarios that will arise from today's vote, which will aim to shape the destiny of the United States in the coming years.

In America, we will be deciding a new president, the 44th President of the United States. Democrats will look to make history with Senator Barack Obama, who will aim to become the first African American President of the United States, while Republicans will look to move on after the Bush years with Senator John McCain. In addition, a third of the United States Senate (including two special elections), all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and eleven governorships along with an assortment of ballot initiatives will be at stake. In addition, control of state legislatures is at stake in all 50 states.

In Fort Bend County (my home base), these are the races in my jurisdiction:

• Special election for an open State Senate Seat. This is SD17 which used to be the Kyle Janek seat; former Congressman Chris Bell will attempt to pick up the seat against another Democrat (even though Bell is viewed by the Democratic establishment as the only true Democrat in the race) and four Republican opponents; the leading GOP candidates are former Bush 41 staffer/Republican activist Austen Furse and former State District Judge Joan Huffman. Whether or not a runoff ensues depends on tonight.
  
• The Presidency (of course).
• U.S. Senate (John Cornyn will fight back a dark horse challenge from Rick Noriega).
• Congress (Nick Lampson will attempt to fend off a strong challenge from Pete Olson).
• Various statewide offices, judicial offices and county offices, as well as State Representative (My State Representative, Charlie Howard, is unopposed).
• Four bond proposals related to a new Cultural Entertainment District in Sugar Land, including a minor league baseball stadium, an indoor concert venue, and other facilities along with tax adjustments to pay for the project.
  

Finally, in other parts of Fort Bend, a competitive County Commissioner's race is ongoing, and the community of Weston Lakes is looking to build its inaugural municipal government, among other initiatives.

I will be updating this blog to let you know what is going on...stay tuned!

The Nifty Fifty House Party - Part L: New York

And so, after six long months of traversing through the American political landscape, I am proud to say that the Nifty Fifty House Party for 2008 has finally reached its final stop this year. After crossing through the home state of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, the Bullet Train to November heads eastward to a state that plays a significant role in the American and world economy, and this year, a significant role in the future of Congress...

NEW YORK

From its early beginnings in the 1600s as the Dutch colony known as New Netherlands, the Empire State has played a pivotal role in the life of the United States, whose Constitution was ratified by New York, the 11th state to do so, on July 26, 1788. Much of the state is dotted with forests, rivers and farms, and the nation's largest state park, Adirondack Park, is situated here. Despite its relative sparseness, 92 percent of New Yorkers (the whole state) reside in urban areas largely concentrated around New York City. In fact, its center of population is located in Orange County, an exurban county outside New York City, which comprises two-thirds of the state's population and forms the core of the BosWash megalopolis that stretches from the Boston area to the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. While it is a slow growth state with a large out-of-state migration rate, New York is a leading destination for immigrants from all over the world; 20 percent of New Yorkers are foreign-born.

The New York economy is the third largest in America, worth $1.02 trillion, which would be the world's 16th largest economy if New York was an entire nation. The state's agricultural outputs include nursery stock, dairy, cattle, maple syrup and various fruits and vegetables including cabbage (the nation's largest producer), onions, apples, cherries and grapes (including 30,000 acres of vineyards). Its industrial sectors include publishing, auto parts, garments and scientific equipment, largely concentrated in Upstate New York, while nanotechnology is a major sector in the Albany and Hudson Valley regions and imaging equipment serves an integral part of Rochester's economy. New York City, the nation's largest city, is a major global cultural and financial center, home to many of the largest corporations in the world, various financial services firms, exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, and numerous attractions from Lincoln Center and Central Park to Times Square and the Statue of Liberty.

A swing state as recent as 1988, New York has emerged as one of the most Democratic states in the country. The state's political liberalism is largely the result of heavily Democratic New York City, where all but one member of its current congressional delegation is a Democrat, as well as the conservative nature of the current Republican Party establishment. Outside of New York City, its suburbs tend to be swing areas, but have leaned more towards the Democrats in recent years. While Upstate New York tends to be more conservative and Republican than the Big Apple, its Republican base is more moderate in comparison to the national party, while Upstate Democrats tend to do well in more urban areas such as Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester and Albany.

One unique aspect of New York politics is electoral fusion, where multiple political parties (such as the Conservative, Working Families and Independence parties) unite behind one candidate. In New York City, it was used to fight Tammany Hall (via the 1933 election of Republican mayor Fiorello La Guardia), the infamous Democratic machine that controlled the city's political establishment well into the postwar era before collapsing in the 1960s. Conservatives usually back Republicans, while Working Families candidates tend to hand out endorsements to Democrats, and candidates of the Independence Party comprise of candidates from both major parties. This year, Barack Obama is expected to carry New York, which is not surprising given that Republicans last won here in Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide. Meanwhile, the GOP is being targeted for defeat in four of its six congressional seats, with pickups certain in three cases (and especially in one), and another race being closely fought.

Fusion Legend: R = Republican, D = Democrat, C = Conservative, I = Independence, WF = Working Families

District 1 (S-Factor 3.8 DEM): Since first being elected in 2002, Tim Bishop (D/I/WF) never won this district with more than two-thirds of the vote, and this year, attorney and Iraq War vet Lee Zeldin (R/C) is running a dark horse bid for this otherwise fairly competitive seat based in eastern areas of Long Island, including Riverhead, Centereach, Smithtown, and the Hamptons. In a normal season, it would be a competitive race, but a poor GOP climate nationally will make a pickup opportunity a hard sell. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 (S-Factor 8.3 DEM): When Rick Lazio challenged Hillary Clinton for the U.S. Senate seat held by Pat Moynihan in 2000, Steve Israel (D/I/WF) ran for this seat -- and won. Since then, this fairly competitive district, largely based in western Suffolk County including such areas as Huntington, Brentwood, Commack and Babylon, as well as a portion of Oyster Bay in Nassau County, has become a safe seat for the incumbent. Businessman Frank Stalzer (R/C) will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 (S-Factor 2.5 DEM): In 2006, House Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member Peter King (R/C/I) faced a strong challenge for his historically Republican Long Island seat that includes Levittown, Oyster Bay and Lindenhurst against Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias, but prevailed with 56 percent of the vote. The only Republican congressman on Long Island, King is heavily favored this year for reelection over economic development consultant Graham Long (D/WF). Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 4 (S-Factor 10.0 DEM): Carolyn McCarthy (D/I/WF) will be favored to defend this seat against Mineola Mayor Jack Martins (R/C), who is running a dark horse campaign for this fairly Democratic district based in southwest Nassau County that includes Valley Stream, Hempstead and Garden City. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 5 (S-Factor 18.0 DEM): Gary Ackerman (D/I/WF) is heavily favored for reelection in this largely liberal district that covers northern areas of Queens (Flushing, Bayside, Jamaica Estates) and Nassau County (Manhasset, Port Washington) over Republican attorney Liz Berney and Conservative retired immigration officer Jun Policarpio. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 6 (S-Factor 38.0 DEM): Gregory Meeks (D/WF) is heavily favored for reelection in this heavily Democratic Queens (Jamaica, Saint Albans, Cambria Heights) district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 7 (S-Factor 27.5 DEM): Incumbent Joe Crowley (D/WF) will cruise to victory in this Bronx (Pelham Bay, Morris Park)/Queens (Jackson Heights, College Point) district for another term over Bronx Conservative Party Treasurer William Britt (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 8 (S-Factor 27.3 DEM): Jerrold Nadler (D/WF) will win another term in this district that cuts across Manhattan's Upper West Side and such neighborhoods as Greenwich Village and SoHo, as well as parts of Brooklyn (Bensonhurst, Seagate, Coney Island) over financial executive Grace Lin (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 9 (S-Factor 14.0 DEM): Anthony Weiner (D/WF) is a potential Democratic candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2009. This year, the Brooklyn (Flatlands, Mill Basin) and Queens (Kew Gardens, Forest Hills)-based incumbent will be heavily favored over Alfred Donohue (C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 10 (S-Factor 39.8 DEM): Ed Towns (D) fended off a primary challenge from hip hop activist, essayist and former reality TV cast member Kevin Powell in the Democratic primary last month and is now heavily favored to defeat Salvatore Grupico (R/C) in this Brooklyn-based (Bedford-Stuyvesant, Canarsie, Ocean Hill) district. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 11 (S-Factor 39.3 DEM): Freshman Yvette Clarke (D/WF) is strongly favored for reelection in this district that takes in the heart of Brooklyn, including Crown Heights, Flatbush and Prospect Heights. Republicans are fielding Hugh Carr, and Conservatives have realtor Cartrell Gore. Neither one has a shot. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 12 (S-Factor 32.8 DEM): Nydia Velázquez (D/WF), who in 1992 became the first ever Puerto Rican woman elected to Congress and the current chair of the House Small Business Committee, should have no trouble defeating frequent candidate Allan Romaguera (R/C) in this district that splits across the NYC boroughs of Brooklyn (Red Hook, Sunset Park), Queens (Maspeth, Woodside), and Manhattan (part of the Lower East Side). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 13 (S-Factor 1.3 DEM): While there are many Republican seats that Democrats are targeting this year and have a good shot at snagging, nothing compares to this district based in Staten Island and portions of Brooklyn including Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights. In fact, it was the last seat to become open (minus one death and two primary defeats that took place afterwards). Vito Fossella was favored for reelection to this district, the most Republican of the New York City seats, until he was stopped for a DWI while driving to see his family -- a family other than the one he is actually married to (Fossella was convicted of this charge on October 17th). When it was revealed that he had an extramarital affair and fathered a child out of wedlock, many called for Fossella to resign or retire, the latter of which did happen.

And if Fossella not seeking reelection was enough to turn heads in the "forgotten borough", the process to find a Republican successor was even more startling. One by one, such notables as District Attorney Dan Donovan and State Senator Andrew Lanza passed over the race, and Republicans settled on Wall Street executive Frank Powers, but not without a family feud: his son Fran Powers considered running as the Libertarian nominee. Then, on the morning of June 22nd, the elder Powers died of a heart attack. And so the party started searching again, and a similar crop of candidates (albeit a lower tier) passed on the race as well, leaving the GOP with former State Assemblyman Bob Straniere, who once represented Staten Island, but moved to Manhattan after he was defeated for reelection in a 2004 primary. To quote a former Staten Island Congressman:

"They couldn't have made a worse mistake. The party was already in desperate shape. They've all but buried it."

- Former Congressman Guy Molinari (R-NY, 1981-1989)

Meanwhile, the Democrats came right off the bat with New York City Councilor Mike McMahon (D/WF) who is now favored to win over Conservative high school development director Tim Cochrane and Independence insurance executive Carmine Morano. Given the nature of this odd race and the GOP climate as it stands, I am going to risk my reputation (and me possibly being called a "liberal" which I am certainly not) on this one... Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 14 (S-Factor 26.3 DEM): Carolyn Maloney (D/WF) first assumed this affluent, liberal district in 1992 when she defeated moderate Republican Bill Green for this East Side Manhattan and Queens (Astoria, Sunnyside) district. Republican attorney Robert Heim and Libertarian Isaiah Matos will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 (S-Factor 42.3 DEM): This district based in Upper Manhattan including Harlem, Washington Heights and Marble Hill has been the domain of House Ways and Means Committee Chair Charlie Rangel (D/WF) since 1971, and Republican paralegal Ed Daniels will find it very difficult to knock off the longtime incumbent. Martín Koppel is running as the Socialist Workers candidate and Craig Schley is running as an independent. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 16 (S-Factor 43.0 DEM): Another tough district for Republicans: José Serrano (D/WF) should have no trouble fending off Ali Mohamed (R/C). George W. Bush only got ten percent here in 2004 and in 2000, six percent in this district based in the Bronx including neighborhoods such as Bedford Park, Melrose, and Fordham. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 17 (S-Factor 21.0 DEM): Eliot Engel (D/I/WF) will easily defeat Robert Goodman (R/C) in a district that covers neighborhoods and towns such as Riverdale and Woodlawn in the Bronx, Nanuet, Suffern and Spring Valley in Rockland County, and Mount Vernon and Yonkers in Westchester County. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 18 (S-Factor 10.5 DEM): Nita Lowey (D/WF) will be heavily favored for another term in this fairly liberal district that covers portions of Westchester (White Plains, Ossining, New Rochelle) and Rockland (New City) counties over Jim Russell (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 19 (S-Factor 1.0 GOP): In 2006, Democrat John Hall scored an upset victory over incumbent Republican Sue Kelly in this district that stretches across several of New York's Hudson Valley suburbs including all of Putnam and parts of Westchester, Orange, Rockland and Dutchess counties. Republicans' chances at taking back this seat were sidelined when Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Chairman Andrew Saul dropped out of the race despite posting receipts of $1.47 million through March of this year. The Republican nominee is Iraq War vet and national security activist Kieran Michael Lalor. Fundraising is a major obstacle: Lalor trails the incumbent both in receipts ($544K versus Hall's $2.17 million) and money in the bank ($40K versus the incumbent's $465K). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 20 (S-Factor 2.0 GOP): Kirsten Gillibrand (D/WF) was the Democrats' control switcher in 2006, becoming the 15th Democrat to pickup a Republican seat that year by defeating Republican John Sweeney, who came under fire due to an incident of domestic violence in which his wife had called police complaining that Sweeney had been "knocking her around". And 15 was the magic number Democrats needed to obtain a majority. The Republicans are fighting back with former New York Secretary of State and former state Republican Party Chair Sandy Treadwell (R/C/I), a former journalist for Sports Illustrated. While he is one of the stronger Republican recruits in this cycle and has raised a total of $6.9 million ($5.9 million of which came from his own pocket), a trifecta of obstacles exist: Gillibrand has $4.48 million in total receipts this cycle (with $3.15 million coming from individual donors), the power of incumbency, and a toxic GOP atmosphere in her favor. The district covers a large swath of Upstate New York surrounding the capital city of Albany including Glens Falls and Saratoga Springs in the north and Hudson in the south. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 21 (S-Factor 8.8 DEM): While the retirement slates are filled with Republicans, longtime Democrat Mike McNulty is one clear exception. The 10-term incumbent decided not to seek reelection to his traditionally Democratic Capital District (Albany, Schenectady, Troy) seat. The Democrats are looking to former New York State Energy Research and Development Authority President and former State Assemblyman Paul Tonko (D/WF) to keep the seat blue. Republicans, meanwhile, are offering Schenectady County Legislator Jim Buhrmaster (R/C). The Independence Party candidate is Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, who unsuccessfully challenged Tonko for the Dem nod. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 22 (S-Factor 6.0 DEM): This is a fairly competitive seat situated in such cities as Binghamton, Ithaca, Poughkeepsie and Middletown, but Maurice Hinchey (D/I/WF) with should have no trouble knocking off teacher and former congressional aide George Phillips (R/C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 23 (S-Factor 0.0): John McHugh (R/C/I) will be favored for another term against attorney Mike Oot (D/WF) in this split Watertown- and Plattsburgh-centric district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 24 (S-Factor 0.0): In 2006, when longtime Republican Sherwood Boehlert called it a career after 24 years in this Upstate district based in Utica as well as outlying areas of Syracuse, Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (D/WF) stepped up to the challenge to flip the seat, facing off against Republican State Senator Ray Meier and winning with 54 percent of the vote in what was seen as a highly competitive seat that year. This year, with the advantage of incumbency, Arcuri will be favored to defeat construction executive Richard Hanna (R/C/I), who has been competitive with $744K in total receipts versus Arcuri's $1.48 million (and outpaces the incumbent in the bank, $345K to $132K), but is facing a difficult GOP climate. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 25 (S-Factor 3.5 DEM): Longtime Republican incumbent Jim Walsh faced a close race in this swingy Syracuse-to-suburban Rochester district where he was held to 51 percent of the vote. Walsh is retiring, but his 2006 challenger, former congressional aide Dan Maffei (D/WF), is running once again and will aim to flip the seat against former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland (R/C) and Green and Socialist candidate Howie Hawkins, a co-founder of the United States Green Party. Sweetland has struggled mightly in fundraising, with only $365K in receipts compared to Maffei's $2.01 million. Based those numbers as well as recent polling (double-digit leads for Maffei), for the Elephant Stampede, this seat can be considered a goner. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 26 (S-Factor 3.3 GOP): In 2006, then-NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds barely prevailed against industralist Jack Davis, 52-48 in a district that connects suburbs in the Buffalo and Rochester areas including North Tonawanda, Greece, Lockport and Batavia. This year, Reynolds is retiring and businessman Chris Lee (R/C/I) has stepped up to the plate to hold the seat for the GOP. On the Dem side, Davis ran again while the D-Trip had high hopes for Iraq War vet Jon Powers, who was seen as a stronger candidate to take the seat for the Democrats. However, Powers ended up finishing second in the primary, but the well-funded Davis didn't snag the nomination. Instead, it went to environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who eventually got the D-Trip's endorsement. So far, Lee maintains a slight advantage as evidenced by polling numbers as well as fundraising totals, with Lee having raised $1.52 million including $620K of his own money and Kryzan raking in $801K including $157K coming from Kryzan herself. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 27 (S-Factor 7.3 DEM): Buffalo and its southern suburbs dominate the district of Brian Higgins (D/WF), who won this seat in 2004 when Republican Jack Quinn decided to call it a career. Higgins is favored to win over tanning salon entrepreneur Dan Humiston (R/I) and retired PR executive Budd Schroeder (C). Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 28 (S-Factor 15.5 DEM): Incumbent Louise Slaughter (D/I/WF), Chairwoman of the House Rules Committee, will be favored in her bid for a 12th term in this district that stretches out from Niagara Falls to the Rochester area. Accountant David Crimmen (R/C) will try to prove otherwise. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 29 (S-Factor 4.8 GOP): Randy Kuhl (R/C/I) represents the most conservative district in the Empire State, situated in the Southern Tier of the state including the Elmira, Corning and Olean areas, as well as suburbs south of Rochester. Kuhl came to Congress in 2004 to succeed moderate Republican Amo Houghton as the standard bearer for this district. But getting reelected has not been easy for Kuhl; in 2006 he only won 52 percent against retired naval officer Eric Massa (D/WF) a former aide to four-star General and 2004 Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark who left the GOP over the war in Iraq. Massa is running again, and the fundraising picture tells a story: both men are waging competitive bids with Massa posting $1.79 million in total receipts and $234K cash on hand and Kuhl racking up $1.35 million with $209K in the bank. One recent independent poll shows Kuhl trailing Massa in recent polling, albeit by single digits. Not surprisingly, this is a bad GOP year: a toxic climate, a shaky economy, a fundraising crisis, and squandered and ineffective political ideas will make reelection difficult for even the safest elephants all across America. As for this race, it will be tough to a T. Prediction: Tossup.

CONCLUSION

After six months of going through 50 states, a third of the Senate, and non-voting delegates (one of which will be brand new going into the 111th Congress), all I can say is that it has been a pleasure to cover the arduous task of taking a look at every congressional seat in the United States. It was not an easy job taking a closer look at what will amount to be our most important election in a lifetime, and in fact, given the rigors of this series, the blog's priorities were heavily shifted from the local political scene in my home base (as well as other topics of my blog), which personally made my blog look somewhat out of place.

In the end, after tinkering and experimenting with various features, the final five states in this segment set the formula: each segment began with one or two opening paragraphs that focused largely on aspects of that state's economic base because the economy is the dominant and number one issue on the minds of American voters this year. Then it focused on one or two paragraphs relating to the political situation both traditionally and in the current year. Finally, the districts were reviewed, and in reviewing everything from fundraising totals to voter trends to the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, I did the best I could to make my analysis as credible, informative, and unbiased as possible, even though there were times when I let out my inner partisan, which was the last thing I would have wanted in my analysis.

As the 2008 election season draws to a close, I clearly understand that competing with a flurry of more established (and in some cases, more biased, whether left or right) sources was not very easy, but as I look back at the last six months, all I can say is that I am very proud of the analysis I have done and regret nothing. This was the very first time I had ever embarked upon such an ambitious project, and while it was not perfect in the end, the one thing that does matter is that all I tried to be in my analysis was honest, because in a world where one slip of the tongue can deliver a crushing blow to one's credibility and self-esteem, honesty matters more than anything.

As for 2008, this year will be a historic election, and one that will set the stage for the direction of the next generation of Americans. I am looking forward to Election Day, and I am sure the same rings true for millions of Americans across the entire country who feel just as optimistic about the future of their country as I do.